Senior Business Immigration Lawyer
A colleague recently shared eye-opening statistics on IRCC application approval rates for January through April 2025. The numbers paint a concerning picture for immigration practitioners and applicants alike. These figures reveal a dramatic shift in Canada’s immigration landscape that demands immediate attention and strategic adaptation.
The data reveals some striking trends across various immigration programs: approval rates are dropping, and refusals are on the rise. Here are some notable figures:
Approval Rates for Temporary Residence Programs (January-April 2025)
Approval rates for Permanent Residence Programs:
These statistics represent a significant departure from historical norms, and Sobirovs Law Firm has noticed these downward trends in our own caseload.
The question that emerges is not just what these numbers mean, but why this is happening and, most importantly, what practitioners and applicants can do to adapt to this new reality.
IRCC clearly prioritizes economic immigration while simultaneously working to reduce the overall number of foreign nationals in Canada.
This strategic pivot is evidenced by several key indicators:
IRCC has increasingly integrated artificial intelligence tools to assist officers in processing applications. While this technology can enhance efficiency, it has also introduced new challenges and, frankly, some absurd reasons for refusal.
Complex cases that traditionally required nuanced human judgment are now often processed through AI-assisted decision-making. Overworked officers, facing enormous backlogs, may rely heavily on AI-generated summaries rather than conducting thorough manual reviews. This has led to a noticeable change in refusal letters – instead of the traditional 2-3 paragraph explanations, we’re now seeing 3-page AI-generated decisions that often miss crucial nuances of individual cases. See below one of such decisions, which I can confidently say was generated by AI.
Immigration processing and approval rates appear to be influenced by the number of resources IRCC assigns to the program, creating dramatic fluctuations in approval rates that have little to do with application quality and merit.
This resource-driven approach was starkly demonstrated in late 2023 to 2024, when the government prioritized backlog reduction and directed substantial resources to certain programs. During this period, some programs saw approval rates exceeding 90% in multiple months. However, when fewer resources are allocated or political priorities shift, approval rates fall steeply – as we’re witnessing across multiple programs in 2025.
We must also acknowledge that officers are human and, given the current system pressures, are prone to making mistakes. The combination of application backlogs, high volumes, potentially inadequate training, and sometimes poor document presentation by applicants creates a perfect storm for erroneous decisions.
A recent example from our practice illustrates this point perfectly: one of our Start-up Visa applicants was refused an open work permit with the explanation that “your spouse does not have a valid study permit in Canada” – even though the applicant was applying to come to Canada as a start-up founder. Such obvious errors highlight the challenges within the current IRCC system.
In this new environment, practitioners must double down on evidence presentation and make applications as clear as possible for both human officers and AI systems. This means including detailed cover pages that explicitly explain what each piece of evidence establishes.
For example, rather than simply including a bank statement, provide a cover page stating: “Applicant’s bank statement for the past 6 months demonstrating a balance of $X. This establishes that the applicant has sufficient funds to launch and operate his business in Canada.”
This approach can help both AI tools and busy officers immediately understand the relevance and significance of each document.
While this may be an unpopular concept among some colleagues, the reality is that legal service providers must now factor AI into application preparation. When business plans are being read and analyzed by AI systems, we should adapt our approach accordingly.
For example, in our law firm, we’ve developed a custom AI system trained on IRCC’s standards and guidelines that reads and scrutinizes business plans for compliance before submission. We’ve shifted from preparing applications primarily for potential Federal Court review to optimizing files for AI processing – this is the new reality in Canada’s immigration law.
When applications are refused, the traditional approach of requesting reconsideration appears to be largely ineffective. IRCC seems to have quietly instructed officers to ignore most reconsideration requests. While Federal Court challenges remain an option, they are costly, lengthy, and often ineffective for many applicants.
In most cases, the most practical remedy is to reapply with enhanced evidence and improved presentation. Always request ATIP (Access to Information and Privacy) notes to understand the specific reasons for refusal, then address those concerns comprehensively in the new application.
Officers are increasingly using the “significant benefits” assessment to deny applications across various programs. Practitioners must focus on strengthening responses to the most cited reasons for refusal and ensure their applications can pass both AI triaging and human scrutiny.
The current environment demands more preparation, strategic evidence presentation, and patience from both practitioners and applicants.
Success in this new landscape requires:
The statistics we’re seeing represent more than just numbers – they reflect a fundamental shift in how Canada is approaching immigration. While challenging, this new reality is not insurmountable. The key is recognizing that the old ways of doing things may no longer be sufficient. In this era of AI-assisted decision-making and strategic policy shifts, success belongs to those who can adapt their approach while maintaining the highest standards of legal practice and client advocacy. By understanding the underlying factors driving these changes and adapting accordingly, we can continue to successfully navigate the immigration system and achieve positive outcomes for our clients.
Annex 1. The actual decision that we received for one of our clients. Reasons appear to be written by AI.
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